Lurker > Master Moltar

well considering it'll probably be irrelevant before the next contest happens, i could reveal the next topic opening would have been based off fire emblem heroes with the crew members being summons

i was hoping there wouldn't be a third topic because i had nothing planned for it
---

Moltar Status: Rocked by BKSheikah
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Congrats!
---

Moltar Status: Rocked by BKSheikah
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

So that's another contest in the books. While the overall feeling is that it might have been one of the least exciting contests we've ever had, I hope that the Contest Analysis Crew could provide some entertainment for you throughout it.

Thanks to my fellow Crew members for coming back, helping me out, and going on the crazy Crew ride once again. Thanks also to all the Guests for providing their insights as well. Most importantly, thanks to all the readers and lurkers, because your following is why the Crew continues to do what it do.

Lastly, thanks to SBAllen for setting up another contest for us to write words about. Hopefully we don't have to wait as long until the next one!
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 32
transience: 31
Kleenex: 30
Leonhart: 29
Guest: 29

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex and Tsunami get a point for 01, Leon gets a point for 97 and 98, Moltar gets a point for 94 and 98, and Ranticoot gets a point for 98

transience: 9
Leonhart: 7
Guest: 6.5 (Dp, Tsunami (1.5), Bane, Luster (2), Ranticoot)
Kleenex: 5.5
Moltar: 5
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

ya

The Mana Sword posted...

I was going to rewrite my finals analysis but I don't know that I really have the drive to do so, just just post the original, Moltar.

Everyone can mentally substitute all references to 1997 with 2001, and all references to Link vs. Cloud with Zelda vs. Final Fantasy.

---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 5

1998 - 60.60%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Guest’s Analysis - Ranticoot

In 2009, Ocarina/RBY/Melee/FFX was a match where Team 1998 took up 61.6% of the vote. Ocarina is a top 2 game. RBY is a top 4 game. Melee might be #5, it's definitely in the top 10, and FFX is in like the top 15-20 range.

That's before adding on games like MGS1 and Half-Life and FFT and RE2 and Starcraft and Banjo/Spyro to 1998, and 2001 gets...uh, MGS2. Halo 1 and GTA3 are important, but on GameFAQs, those games arguably weaken the year. 1998 just crushes 2001 in GameFAQs strength in every notable category. RE2 beats SIlent Hill 2. Banjo and Spyro beat Jak and Daxter and SA2. MGS1 beats MGS2. Half-Life beats Halo. Xenogears might beat Golden Sun. Starcraft probably beats Pikmin. 1998 does not have a GTA game. Stuff like that.

Brilliant.

Boring end to a boring contest. Yes yes 2001 got a surprise win on 1997, but 1997 didn't have N64 games and ultimately was just FF7 and SOTN in that match. The only bright thing 2001 has in the picture is that RBY is not up first and MGS1 is, allowing Melee to thrive just a little more and maybe giving FFX some breathing room. Or something. I just don't see any way 2001 can win on natural strength because 1998 is a ridiculous year. Like the only way 2001 would even have a chance is if you took ALL traces of Ocarina and RBY out of this match and at that point, shit, this year is so stacked it could fight with MGS headlining. And 98 just had a poll so people will remember this year had Ocarina and RBY in it anyway.

Ranticoot's prediction - 1998 with 63.4%



Crew Consensus: Congrats 1998
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 5 – 2001 vs. 1997

Moltar’s Analysis

Here’s a final analysis truly deserving of this contest:














Moltar’s Bracket: 1998

Moltar’s Prediction: 1998 - 60%



transience’s Analysis

Man, I just don't know. I look at those pictures and just kinda throw my hands up. I felt like I had a grasp on the match when it was 4v4 but when we get to 12v12 I'm like "what are we even doing?" Feels like we're getting into the expanded universe here.

I think voters will feel similarly. Either they go YO OCARINA OF TIME, YO SMASH BROS or they look at it and just kinda pick something random. I think this is going to be kinda close. In reality, 1998 rocks everything out of the water, but maybe 2001 gets a bit of an underdog surge and the depth of 01 makes it stand up pretty well. 2001 shouldn't be here, but at the same time, 1997 would be totally outclassed here so it's probably for the best.

transience's prediction: 1998 with 57.01%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Internet is still out, so it'll be another short writeup from my phone! The only thing I'm looking forward to here is seeing if Allen announces the next contest during the match. I think it happened that way in 2006, so who knows! Just don't let this be the last contest for a year or more.

Oh right, 1998 wins, but you all already knew that. Thanks for letting me on the Crew again, Moltar. Hopefully we'll be back together soon!

Leonhart's Vote: 2001

Leonhart's Prediction: 1998 with 60.10%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Who could have possibly seen this coming? No matter how hard we try, we'll never be able to get away from the shackles of Link vs. Cloud on this site. Here's the short version of how this match goes - Link beats Cloud again. It ain't 2003 anymore (that already got destroyed by Link). So even if this was just a straight OoT vs. FF7 match, there's no double 1998 would win. But that's not all this is, because Link brought a bunch of Pokemon to the fight. A game that might outright beat FF7 on its own too. 1998's depth just keeps going and going and it never stops.

The biggest finals blowout we've ever had in a 1v1 contest was all the way back in Character Battle 1 where Link won over Mario with 62.53% of the vote. I think there's a strong chance that this breaks that record - that's how far ahead of every other year in the bracket I think 1998 is. 1998 just waltzed right through this entire contest, and I don't think it's going to be close.

And that's all there is! That was definitely A Contest. I think at the end of the day, this one kind of gets forgotten in a few weeks, and a year down the road we'll have trouble remembering it ever happened (hey, remember the Rivalty Rumble?). It was interesting to have a contest where the entrants were sort of unknowns, but the reliance on pictures dictating results (and how different they were from the yearly release prompts when creating a bracket) was somewhat frustrating. I appreciate that we at least got something, though.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1998 with 62.54%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

meant to put this up last night but forgot whoops

need a guest for the final match

2001/1998 -
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4 – 1994 vs. 1998

Moltar’s Analysis

1998, the pre-contest favorite to win it all, has not done anything to lose that status. 80%+ performances all thoughout the contest so far, and even though 1994 is strong, it is certainly not on the level of 1998.

The only thing to watch here is how big the margin of victory is, because the higher it goes, the less of a chance you give 1997 in pulling off the upset in the finals.





Oh wait 2001 is winning so uh….that doesn’t really change much.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1998

Moltar’s Prediction: 1998 - 67%



transience’s Analysis

Man, what a dumb contest.

Anyway! 1998 is basically just taking its victory lap here, so this match isn't that interesting. 1994 is probably the weakest of the final four, just like 2003 was the weakest of the final 8. 1998 is the elephant in the room that everyone tries to avoid, even the bracketmaker.

That said, I think 1994 has the potential to do the best against 1998. There's a clear delineation between 2d and 3d games. 1998 is the starchild of the 3d era, the year that truly brought a bunch of genres into the 3d era. 1994 is probably the star of the 2d era. It's too bad that the SNES is split across so many years. You've got Mario World, LTTP, Super Metroid, FF6 and Chrono Trigger and the only year with two of the five is 1994. Still, 1994 might stand the best chance of not getting crushed under the weight of 1998. We'll see.

transience's prediction: 1998 with 65.24%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Sorry, my internet is down, so I'm going to have to make this short and sweet from my phone! Thankfully, nothing really needs to be said. 1998 wins tonight. 1998 wins tomorrow. The end.

Leonhart's Vote : 1994

Leonhart's Prediction : 1998 with 69.75%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Well. 1994 is certainly the strongest year that 1998 has to face so far. Maybe FF6 and crew can keep this monster under 70%? I think this is a good chance for 1994 to prove that it's actually legit. I've been down on that year the whole contest, but if it can avoid a doubling, I'll at least give it some credit.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1998 with 68%



Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

1994 got a great set of pics. Doesn't matter. 1998 wins. And I won't underestimate it this time.

tennisboy213's bracket: 1998>1994
tennisboy213's prediction: 1998 with 70%



Crew Consensus: 1998 to the finals (for real this time)
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

But seeing 1997 doing FFVII’s traditional rise to high heaven against 1996 gave me such a feeling of nostalgia for the good ol’ days. It was a fun blowout to watch. It almost makes me want to vote for it again here just to see the beautiful domination continue. 1997 has a lot of games I love, too, like FFVII, Mario Kart 64, and Star Fox 64. This might be the highest quality one-on-one match for me, along with 1994/2004. I guess I’ll do the best of both worlds here and vote for 2001 while simultaneously hoping 1997 crushes this match to give me false hope about the final. My entire contest tenure here has been built on false hope since SC2K4. I want it—no, I need it back in my life.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2001

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1997 with 63.25%



Kleenex’s Analysis


Early on, I think you could have made a case for this being a debatable match. Some people might still try to make a case for this being a debatable match. I don't really see it. 1997 destroyed 1996, a year that is not slouch itself. 2001 didn't look great against 1995 - though to be fair 1995 is probably shaping up to be one of the top 5 years in this contest.

At the end of the day, 2001 might have the depth advantage on 1997 (slightly), but I think 1997 just hit so much harder with its big games. That being said, there's always a possibility something funky could happen because Melee fans are out of their god damn minds, but no one seems to care much about this contest either way.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1997 with 57%



Guest’s Analysis - whatisurnameplz


1997 is definitely the favorite here, but it isn't a guaranteed win in my opinion, because I think it's a little difficult to gauge the strength of both years based on their previous matches. 95 was barely able to squeak by against a bunch of important NES games with nothing but Chrono Trigger, which shows how strong of a game it is here. In Round 3 that behemoth of a game was backed up with Yoshi's Island, Donkey Kong Country 2, and Earthbound. Meanwhile, 96 had Mario 64, Mario RPG, and a bunch of fodder to defend itself against 97, which beat it pretty hard. Most people wouldn't doubt that it got SFF'd to some degree, but how much of an impact it had in the blowout is hard to say. For now I'd say 97 gets 60% before SFF.


After some thinking, I decided that 95 is definitely stronger than 96, because, while the N64 came out in 96, not many really good games came out that year outside of Mario. CT is definitely stronger than Mario 64, and the trio of SNES games to back it up definitely makes 95 look stronger than 96 despite it having its own SNES game in Mario RPG.


With that said, even if 95 would win that match easily I don't think it would get 70% on 96 after SFF, so I can't pick 2001 here. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an upset though.


1997 - 54.58%

Crew Consensus: 1997 to the finals
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4 – 2001 vs. 1997

Moltar’s Analysis

Before the contest, I took a risk and though 1997 would flop early. That turned out well………..

1997’s round 3 performance should clear any doubts about it not being a top 2 year in this contest. The expanded picture format only further displays how deep and strong the year is beyond just FF7.

2001 is up there though, and it looks to be one of the few years in this contest that can challenge 1997. The problem there though is that it didn’t look like a worldbeater in Round 3 against 1995, and now that performance looks even worse with 1997 looking like a worldbeater 24 hours later.

Judging actual strength of the years not on blowing out fodder, but against years with strength also seems to be the way to go, so I’m not going to put too much strong in the early round showings for these years. It’s simply two powerhouse years going head-to-head, and 1997 has the edge based off what we saw last round.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2001

Moltar’s Prediction: 1997 - 57%



transience’s Analysis

I'm writing this without seeing the match pics, but I don't think they matter all that much. The difference between our top and bottom most voted poll is like 5000 votes max. I'm pretty sure that our audience is largely people that come here over and over so adding Golden Sun or Diddy Kong Racing isn't going to rock the boat here.

97 is the clear fave here. 2001 struggled to beat 1995 while 1997 went to town against 1996. That might be the most impressive result of the contest. It's one of those 85/87esque "what the fuck just happened?" kind of performances. You'd call it SFF if SFF made any sense. Goldeneye isn't about to SFF Mario 64. Nope.

But the fact is, that result made 1996 look as strong as 2007 and 1990 looks like it would get demolished. Sorry, but I'm a little skeptical buying that one. Without seeing that result, you'd look at 01 and 97 and think it would be pretty close. 01 doesn't have the monster at the top like 97 does, but it does have some serious depth. 01 goes 10 deep, like legitimately 10 deep. 97 goes 5. If depth really is a big helper, 01 should be able to stand up to 97 easily.

I'm a little nervous about this one. Results tell one story but my brain tells me another. This contest is hard to really ascertain what people are voting for so I should probably trust results more than anything else. Still, I'm wary here. I'm gonna lowball 97. Show me you can compete with 1998, FF7.

transience's prediction: 1997 with 54.41%



Leonhart’s Analysis

If I’m looking at this match at face value, 2001 might be my favorite year in this contest. It’s got one of my favorite games ever in FFX and a bunch of other great games I like a lot, like SSBM, MGS2, Paper Mario, and so on. It’s such a loaded year. However, 1997 vs. 1996 probably made me the happiest I’ve been this entire contest because—let’s be real—this contest hasn’t had a lot of excitement and drama. There have only been three matches where the winner wasn’t leading at the freeze, and the winner had taken the lead by the end of the Power Hour. The biggest comeback has been 56 votes, and 2000/1996 is the only match that had a lead change outside of the Power Hour.
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

2001/1997 - whatisurnameplz

1994/1998 -
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 4

1997 - 56.40%
1998 - 65.40%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3

1998 - 78.20%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 – 1998 vs. 2003

Moltar’s Analysis

Remember that 1997 vs 1996 match?

Yeah this is gonna be like that but worse. 1998 is stronger than (or equal to if you want to believe the winner of this contest is in doubt) 1997, and 2003 is easily weaker than 1996.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1998

Moltar’s Prediction: 1998 - 75%



transience’s Analysis

Every year we have that one entrant that goes far but doesn't belong. I always compare it to Scorpion, the 2002 entrant that went way further than he should have and got overrated for years because of it. (And also stopped Sub-Zero from showing up until 06.)

2003 is not only that entrant this year, it's also going to get murdered by the alpha dog. Wind Waker and a bunch of mediocre games? Ocarina will squash Wind Waker and the other games of 03 are begging to get murdered by even mid-tier 98 games like FFT. This will be ugly.

transience's prediction: 1998 with 76.12%



Leonhart’s Analysis

In many contests, there’s an entrant who’s still hanging around in the Elite Eight or Final Four who has no business being there and is just outclassed by everything else. In 2002, it was Scorpion. In the Villains Contest, it was Diablo. In the Series Contest, it was Metal Gear. In 2006, it was Yuna. In 2007, it was Dante. In Rivalry Rumble, it was Alucard/Dracula. In 2015, it was Mario RPG. In this contest, it’s 2003. I’m recounting contest history to pad this writeup because there’s not much to say. 2003 is only here because it had a ridiculously weak four-pack, and the strongest game from that year (Wind Waker) is completely neutralized by Ocarina of Time. 1998 gets another cakewalk win, and we will still have no idea how strong it actually is.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1998

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1998 with 80.80%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Not much to say here. 1998 stomps, and then we'll analyze how much it gets in this match and try to come up with ways that 1997 can beat it. Spoilers: there are none.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1998 with 82%



Guest’s Analysis - Bane

By far the least contested match of the Quaters I think? Like whoever won between 03 and 05 in Round 2 was just looking to who would get sacrificed to 98 next round. Anyway, as expected 1998 has been pretty much steamrolling through the contest. It hasn't had any particularly tough competition yet, but regardless it's been doing well.

2003 has had a bit rougher of a road, namely the aforementioned 2005 fight. 2005 isn't a slouch year, so 2003 pulling off a 57% against it isn't something to scoff about.

But let's cut it here: ain't much of a way 2003 wins this fight.

1998 with 65.67%



Crew Consensus: 98 wins zzzzzzz
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

1998/2003 - Bane

2001/1997 -
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

This is a big match, and will go a long way in determining the guru winner and who wins a prize in the main contest. Maybe I can even make a leaderboard appearance! Before I get to this match, I'd like to talk about something that has been lightly discussed, but I feel is probably a major factor this contest, and that is generational SSF. I feel that any matchup between years that feature games from the same consoles will have at least a little, and probably a good amount of SSF. I think we're seeing that in the current match. Both years are PS1/N64 years, and '97 is far superior for both consoles. Will there be SSF in this match? Probably, as '91 and '94 and both SNES/Genesis years, although I don't think it will be as pronounced as in some of the other matches we've seen.

Anyway, these are two of my favorite years. Neither year got an optimal pic, although 1994's Mega Man X is probably the biggest snub, and Allen continues to refuse to acknowledge Sonic 3 & Knuckles (S&K appears in the pic though). 1991 didn't get the SNES, but that was expected after no console pics appeared in the other matches.

1991 underperformed against 2002 last round, getting under 55% when most were expecting low to mid 60's. That makes 1994 the slight favorite going into this match. 1994 may have slightly underperformed against 2011, getting 62%, but the real thing to take away from that match is 1994's drop from the board vote. It dropped nearly 17% from the 4-minute mark. We'll see if a similar drop happens this match.

The pic order may be important, as 1994 has the advantage in the first 8 pics, and 1991 has the advantage in the last 8. This match seems similar to the ongoing match, however, I believe this will be significantly closer. 1991 has more depth than 1996 and 1994 is missing Mega Man X from the pics. Still, I think the voters will see 1994 as just the better and deeper year.

tennisboy213's bracket: 1994>1991
tennisboy213's prediction: 1994 with 55%



Crew Consensus: Crew is split! 1994 is the slight favorite
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Me? I'm going with the better games. 1991 is the year that the Super Nintendo debuted but 1994 is the year that the SNES matured into 'system of the ever' status. I don't think this matchup will be very close -- 1994 will surely jump out to a lead before 1991 starts clawing back. With same fanbase type stuff, it's rarely dead even. I'm gonna throw my hat in the 1994 ring.

transience's prediction: 1994 with 55.78%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Now that I’m back on the leaderboard, it’s time to act in complete self-interest and find reasons 1991 will win…! Seriously though, I think it’s pretty clear through two rounds that both of these years weren’t as strong as many of us originally predicted. I do feel a little better about 1991’s chances after seeing 1995 essentially go even with 2001 outside of the night vote after a terrible performance against 1987. I’m probably making a false correlation, but it works for me! Makes me feel like 1991 can rebound here, too.

The match pics went up shortly before I started writing this, and it looks like both years got a good lineup. 1991 has Mario/Sonic and 1994 has Super Metroid/FFVI on the top line, which is what both sides would want. I think 1991’s pic has more nostalgia for people like me who were gamers back then, but 1994 has more stuff that people still play and love today. I don’t know who that’s an advantage for, but I think it’s pretty balanced. I think this will be a pretty close match either way, barring some weird generational SFF thing.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1991

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1991 with 51.05%



Kleenex’s Analysis

This is probably the last debatable match of the contest, after seeing the past two days' results. The last 4 days are on cruise control barring any outside influence.

So today's match. '91 has impressed and '94 has slightly disappointed in my eyes. I originally thought that '94 would take this because that year had better depth and that has been shown multiple times to matter in this contest. But after seeing the match pics, the depth is actually a lot closer than I thought, especially with '94 being denied MMX. If you go down the list of both years by strength, SMW should beat FF6, SM should beat FF4, Sonic 1...probably beats S&K? SF2...loses to DKC? Maybe? F-Zero is then probably worth more than anything left in '94's bucket.

This one is going to be close. Perhaps this is finally the match where the console makes the difference? For the two people who take that into account? My bracket says '91, so let's go in on this. Screw you 1994! I don't like your games anyway.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1991 with 51%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 – 1991 vs. 1994

Moltar’s Analysis

So here’s what many are speculating to be the last toss-up of the contest. I have 1991 in my dead bracket, but am I still standing by that? Click here to find out!



So I’ve been going back and forth since the contest started. In Round 1, 91 blew out fodder (which isn’t as impressive now considering how many other years were able to do the same) while 94 struggled with 2004. In Round 2, 91 struggled with 2002 while 94 performed well. Overall, I would take 2004 over 2002, so on that basis alone I’m leaning more towards 1994.

Picture might not be a huge factor here as both years got great pictures that showcase their strongest games at the forefront. 1994 is missing MMX, but that would have been the final nail in the coffin, as even without it, I believe it edges out 1991’s line-up. Yeah, SMW is at the top, but several of 1994’s games are right behind it and ahead of the next strongest 1991 game.

In the end, those Round 2 performances made up my mind on this match. Siding with 1994.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1991

Moltar’s Prediction: 1994 - 54%



transience’s Analysis

Okay, I'm back home and ready for the match of the contest! It probably won't be 96/00 close but it's the most fun theoretical battle of the contest, especially with how 01 struggled against 95 and 97 blowing 96 the hell up.

Let's start by looking at results. 1991 looked in control after round 1 where it destroyed 1988. It's one of the most nostalgia-heavy years going up against the lowest tier mainline Zelda and a year that lacked Mario 2 (not that it would have mattered a whole lot). Meanwhile, 1994 collapsed after the early vote and got dragged under 60% by 2004, a year without any really big games outside of MGS3. In round 2, 1994 again started out super strong before falling from heaven. It was probably better than 1991 though which went under 55% against a 2002 year that had good games but not great ones.

That's all nice and good. I actually don't think results matter a whole lot here though. This is an intergenerational battle and I think it depends on which side the fanbase falls on. Here's what it comes down to for me: can Super Mario World SFF Super Metroid? Or, put another way: is Super Metroid legit? It had a breakout year in 2015 but was way out of line with its previous performances. Yeah, we never had a good read on it, but it was clearly never on Majora's level after getting tripled by LTTP in 04 and struggling with Super Mario Kart in 09.

I'll answer these separately. Can Mario World SFF Super Metroid? It certainly wasn't able to do anything to Metroid Prime. Different generations, but still. Is Super Metroid legit? Metroid Prime certainly looks it! Also, Chrono Trigger almost carried 1995 to a win over 2001 which is full of killers. Those two things point to both Metroid being legit and the 2015 results being legit. Oh, one other game that looked great in 2015? Final Fantasy VI.

I do think there's some scary stuff in 1991's favor. There's the x-factor of that Mario World/Sonic 1 picture, side by side, in the first scroll. The Super Metroid/FF6 combo is a strong counter though. There's the fact that 1994 missed getting Mega Man X while 1991 got Metroid 2 - not a strong game by any means but it still looks awesome and has METROID all front and center. FF4 was able to avoid the head-on confrontation of FF6 which would not go well. If there's a nostalgia factor in this contest, 1991 has a great shot.
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

One day into Round 3, and we haven't seen any consoles appear in match pictures. I guess Allen is going to snub consoles yet again, even if users submit pictures for consoles. 2001 wasn't too likely to have consoles in its match pictures because the year is too deep with games to swap out one of the games for a console (and 2001 has 3 consoles). 1995 was more likely to have a console appear in a match picture as that year doesn't have as much depth and the PS1 would have been the system most likely to make an appearance. No consoles appeared in 1995's match pictures either, and I don't have much hope of a console appearing in 1996's match pictures.

With the N64 not expected to appear in 1996's match pictures, the chances of winning this match is much lower. The switch from 2 matches per day to 1 match per day has allowed the match pictures to show twice as many games for each year and this clearly benefits the years that have a lot of depth. 1997 has better depth than 1996, including some Nintendo representation that could leech some votes away from 1996.

So far, 1997 has not acted like a FFVII proxy and become the target of anti-votes like FFVII itself would have. But those were the earlier rounds and maybe this could change later in the contest. 1997 has access to solid Nintendo representation in Star Fox 64, Mario Kart 64, and GoldenEye 007. Those games could make it harder for voters to anti-vote 1997 if all of them appear in the match pictures. Having those 3 N64 games on 1997's side could even neutralize any advantage 1996 might get from having the N64 in a match picture.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: 1997

Luster Soldier's Prediction: 1997 – 55.48%



Crew Consensus: 97 says see ya next year to 96
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 – 1997 vs. 1996

Moltar’s Analysis

FF7 vs. SM64 would be a very interesting match these days, as FF7 isn’t as strong as it used to be, while SM64 is like a fine wine. This isn’t that match though, as 96 and 97 were bigger than just those two games.

Unfortunately for 96, it really only has SMRPG and high fodder going for it after SM64. 97 definitely wins the depth battle, and its second tier games like SotN and Goldeneye, are fairly legit.

The days of blowouts are over, but 97 is strong enough to win this by a comfortable margin.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2000 (lol)

Moltar’s Prediction: 1997 - 57%



transience’s Analysis

This match feels pretty clear now. There was a time when a 96 win was a fun theoretical thought, back when you could maybe say Mario 64 beats FF7 and depth doesn't matter. Since then, we've seen that depth does indeed matter and 96 just doesn't have it. 97 only goes maybe 5 deep but 96 goes maybe 3 at best. Okay, there are other last-gasp SNES games from big series' that maybe help but it's not going to hang with 97's n64 triple threat.

Basically, 97 only needs to be better than a gimped 00 to win. It should be above that with some ease. We need one of those time-and-again FF7 bombs to drop this one. Possible, but super unlikely.

transience's predix: 1997 with 59.34%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve seen some people picking 1996 to win this one, but I don’t really get it, especially after 1985/1987. This is basically the N64 version of that match, with 1997 having the added advantage of a little game called Final Fantasy VII. 1996 has Mario 64 and the launch of the N64, but 1997 is one of the best years on the system, headlined by Mario Kart 64 and GoldenEye 007. I just don’t think 1996 has anything else to pull from to overcome 1997. It probably wouldn’t even be here if 2000 didn’t get hampered by its unfortunate pic rotation, and I doubt 1997 will have that problem here. I think 1997 wins this one easily.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1997

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1997 with 63.45%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I don't really see any way that 1996 can win this. It's a year mostly anchored by two games, while 1997 has a ton of depth. After Mario 64 and Mario RPG, 1996's quality drops off pretty sharply. And to be frank, 1996 doesn't even deserve to be here tbqh. 2000 got robbed. This will be a decent test for '97, though. 2001 definitely looked vulnerable last round (not to discredit '95 or anything!) and '97 can definitely capitalize on that in the semis if it puts up a nice showing here.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1997 with 59%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

ez
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3

2001 - 59.60%
1997 - 57.30%
1994 - 51.50%
1998 - 68.80%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

R.I.P. my bracket (May 2nd 2017 - May 16th 2017).

I had some high hopes for 1995 going into this contest. After round 1, it seemed like my pick of 1995 making it to the finals wasn't entirely crazy. Then round 2 happened, and it's all down the toilet. 1995 looked bad last round. You can try to gussy it up all you want - 1987 is actually really strong! The match picture was bad! - but there's no denying that this upset has almost no chance of happening now. 2001 looked pretty great last round too, for what it's worth.

Now, I don't know what the match pics look like for round 3 yet. I assume with 8 games per year, they'll both get all the big names this time, instead of freaking Full Throttle for diversity's sake. Even then, 1995 is going to have to rely on Chrono Trigger a lot and I think we've seen that one anchor game isn't enough to do well in this contest. 2001's depth is too too strong, even if 1995's top game is far and away the strongest.

Although both games are equidistant, year-wise, from 1998...! Really makes you think...

Kleenex's Prediction: 2001 with 57%



Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami

Well, we've seen this before. Just last contest, actually; CT didn't have enough to take down Melee then, and it doesn't have enough backup to deal with the rest of 2001's repertoire. That said, this is NostalgiaFAQs and 1995's not exactly weak, so I think this will merely be an Ulti-style blowout rather than a true blowout.

2001 with 57% of the vote



Crew Consensus: 2001 moves on to the final four
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 3 – 1995 vs. 2001

Moltar’s Analysis

I was a bit worried about this one pre-contest when I didn’t know what would matter more, the anchor or depth. Now? I couldn't feel more confident in my pick.

Round 2 pretty much set up 1995’s fate here. It basically went even with 1987, a strong year with good depth. Why was it a close match? Because Chrono Trigger is all 1995 has, and voters are voting based off the entire year (or at least the pictures represented for that year).

If 1987 is Magikarp, then 2001 is Gyrados, an entirely different beast. 2001 has even stronger games and more depth than 1987, so if 1995 could barely beat that, then 2001 shouldn’t have a problem cleaning up here.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2001

Moltar’s Prediction: 2001 - 60%



transience’s Analysis

I guess we're down to one match a day now? This match was kind of hotly debated pre-contest due to how out of this world Chrono Trigger was in 2015. It might have been the strongest game in the bracket, putting 60% on 2001's strongest game before getting counterrallied in one of the most egregious results of all time. I would put CT's loss as being worse than anything Undertale did. At least Undertale was new and refreshing, even though we reacted about as poorly as we could. Melee was a strong game getting beat clean and found a get out of jail free card.

Anyway, 95 needs a hell of a picture factor to turn this around. It needed all day to fight off four NES games, a system that goes maybe 3 deep across the whole platform's lifespan. It was gimped but best case is that Chrono Trigger is still at godslayer strength -- not likely -- and that it gets its four best games which is still a long walk from 01. 95/01 is good in that we're getting a good barometer for good SNES year vs. good PS2 year but the strength gap is pretty massive.

transience's prediction: 2001 with 61.78%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I have to imagine 1995’s picture situation will be much improved now that we have user-made pics, but I don’t expect DKC2, Yoshi’s Island, and EarthBound (and maybe the PS1) to be enough to overcome the gap that appears to exist between it and 2001. It’s looked like a monster through two rounds, which should come as no surprise considering the lineup of great games it’s got. It might get an even better set of games for its pic, too. On the surface, I can’t see any way 2001 loses here, although I think 1995 will perform respectably with a better set of games in its corner. However, if 1995 somehow pulls this one out, it’s just a testament to how much pictures actually matter in a contest like this.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2001

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2001 with 59.50%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 26
Kleenex: 25
transience: 25
Leonhart: 24
Guest: 23

Crew Accuracy Challenge: tran gets the point for 95, 94, 98 and 01, Leon gets the point for 97, 03 and 96, Luster gets the point for 91

transience: 9
Kleenex: 5
Guest: 5 (Dp, Tsunami, Bane, Luster (2))
Leonhart: 5
Moltar: 3
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Pick a match

Do the write-up

Send to [email protected]

1995/2001 -

1997/1996 -

1991/1994 -

1998/2003 -
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2

1998 - 66.40%
2003 - 52.50%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 – 2003 vs. 2005

Moltar’s Analysis

This could be a decent match? Neither year impressed much last round and put up similar numbers on their opponents. 2013 vs 2015 would likely be a close match as well, though I lean more towards 2013 there since it has the stronger top games.

So we got Wind Waker, FFX-2 and KotOR vs. RE4, PW and SotC… give me the former there, but not by much.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2003

Moltar’s Prediction: 2003 - 53%



transience’s Analysis

Man, who knows. Round 1 looked pretty identical between these two guys. Maybe 2005 looked ever so slightly better? Neither year has a deep lineup but 03 has Wind Waker and 05 has RE4. 03 has FF and Zelda. It's not really the FF you would want but I'll take it. 03 in a squeaker but one I bet isn't actually as close as the final tally would suggest.

transience's prediction: 2003 with 54.01%



Leonhart’s Analysis

These years put up similar performances in round 1, so this essentially boils down to whether 2013 or 2015 is stronger. I think it’s probably pretty close. 2013 has the strongest game in either year in The Last of Us (or A Link Between Worlds, but it’s getting no representation here). 2015 is probably the deeper year, but it also may have underperformed a bit since it was missing Bloodborne in the match pic. LBW is obviously worth more though, so it balances out.

I went back and forth on this match when making my bracket, and I still don’t have any great confidence in either year. I’ll stick with my bracket and go with 2003 because it has a mainline Zelda, and that’s a pretty good tiebreaker for two relatively even years.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2005

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2003 with 57.57%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I've already expressed my lack of faith in 2005 twice this contest and I'll do it again here - I still don't think '05 is that strong. That being said, '03 kinda sucks too. It couldn't break 60% on '13 and it really only has Wind Waker of note. At the end of the day, though, it doesn't matter because they both get savaged by 1998 next round.

Based on last round, I think 2005 was slightly more impressive so I guess I'll go with that. 2005 is also a much more aesthetically pleasing number, so that's sure to get it some votes, right?

Kleenex's Prediction: 2005 with 55%



Guest’s Analysis - spooky



Crew Consensus: 2003 is the Crew favorite
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 – 1998 vs. 1992

Moltar’s Analysis

The next year on 1998’s free path to the finals is 1992. It’s a bit of a shame too, as 1992 is a pretty strong and deep year with LttP leading it.

1998 has OoT though, and LttP always bows down to King OoT. Even though the backup games are fairly comparable, I think people are mostly going to see this as LttP vs. OoT and vote accordingly.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1998

Moltar’s Prediction: 1998 - 65%



transience’s Analysis

92 ain't bad, but it's obviously not 98. 98 isn't at peak strength with this pic but it got its big three and that's what matters. 92 really only has LTTP and SMK -- something tells me FF5 will never get considered -- and while those games can keep things reasonable, 98 is in a whole other class from even the top years in this contest.

transience predix: 1998 with 71.13%



Leonhart’s Analysis

End of round two already, huh? Not much to say about this match. This might basically be OoT/LttP redux, so I’m not going to take much away from this match regardless of whether 1998 goes really high or 1992 does pretty well. It’s weird how we’ve gone from undershooting years in round 1 to overshooting them in round 2. This contest continually makes little to no sense.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1998

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1998 with 62.25%



Kleenex’s Analysis



Guest’s Analysis - whatisurnameplz

92 is one of the few years that has a game that can actually stand up to Ocarina or Pokemon RBY thanks to A Link to the Past, but the drop off between that and Super Mario Kart is pretty huge, and neither Kirby's Dream Land nor Wolfenstein 3D have the strength to make up for it. Really, there's nothing in this contest that can stop 98. It's absolutely deserving of the title "Best Year in Gaming". It won't be a total blowout because 92 actually has games, but I expect 98 to easily get the win.


1998 – 65.07%



Crew Consensus: 98 takes it ez
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2

1991 - 64.30%
1994 - 61.60%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 – 1994 vs. 2011

Moltar’s Analysis

Congrats on your upset victory 2011, now you get the honor of bowing out to 1994 today!

Neither 2011 or 2006 are strong years, and it is very likely that 2004, 1994’s Round 1 opponent, would beat both of those years. I’m not willing to let 1994 off the hook completely though, as I do think some of that is it getting exposed.

If 1994 struggles here again, then that’s definitely not a good look going into Round 3. It has to win big here to be the favorite going into next round, but I’m guessing that it will put up another middling performance.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1994

Moltar’s Prediction: 1994 - 64%



transience’s Analysis

94 kinda struggled with 04. 04 should be better than 11. - at the very least we should understand if 2011 is a fluke or not. 06 isn't great but it's probably not that much worse than 07 or 08. 97 and 01 set a good bar for us here. Can 94 go near it?

transience's prediction: 1994 with 63.34%



Leonhart’s Analysis

How much of the previous round’s match was 1994 not being as strong as people expected and how much was it 2004 being much stronger than people expected? I think it’s a combination of both, but I give more credit to 2004 than blame to 1994. I think 2004 is probably the third strongest modern year, after 2001 and 2000. 1994 should get a better chance to flex its muscles here. 2011 pulled the upset against an underrepresented 2006 last round, but it’s simply outclassed here. This will probably be pretty ugly and should demonstrate how much this site loves the SNES era compared to the modern era.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1994

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1994 with 73.60%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I'm still kinda reeling from 2011's win last round. Pics definitely matter here, but 1994's is totally fine, so that shouldn't be an issue.

However! I'm going throw something crazy out here. I don't think 2011 is completely dead in the water this round. I thought '94 looked pretty limp last round, and even with a large pic advantage, I thought 2011 looked pretty good. Now, I'm not quite crazy enough to actually pull the trigger on this upset, and I'm aware this would mean 2011 would need to be stronger than 2004, which sounds crazy. But if I were someone like, say, Lopen, it's something I might consider.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1994 with 60%



Guest’s Analysis - SpikeDragon




Crew Consensus: gonna get more 94
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 – 1991 vs. 2002

Moltar’s Analysis

After some close match excitement, we’ve got what should be a boring predictable day. What will be interesting is comparing 1991 and 1994 in their matches, since that should be a fun showdown next round.

Anyway, 1991 is a strong year with depth, while 2002 is a decent year with some depth, but certainly not on the same scale. This should be an easy win for 91, but 2002 isn’t going to get blown out.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1991

Moltar’s Prediction: 1991 - 66%



transience’s Analysis

Okay, I'm out of town for a week so my writeups will be from my phone. Don't expect much!

91/02 has always weirdly fascinated me. Before the contest, I put forth a way to pick the bracket:

1. year closest to 1998 wins
2. in the case of a tie, the older year wins

So far, that bracket is -1 and possibly only because of the match picture imbalance. I bring this up because 91/02 is the one match where that logic goes against conventional wisdom. 02 is sneaky good and 91 is pretty old - is there any potential here? Probably not, but I'd like to think there's a nonzero chance.

transience's prediction: 1991 with 59.99%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Both 1991 and 2002 had very good first round performances. Coupled with 1994’s performance, 1991 seems to have become a bigger favorite for the big showdown next round, but that could change here. I believe 2004 is stronger than 2002, so at the very least, 1991 needs to outdo 1994’s first round percentage to remain the favorite. I still think 2002 is pretty solid though, so I won’t panic if 1991 doesn’t go sky high here.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1991

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1991 with 64.25%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I think 2002 did a bit better than I expected last round, but now it's up against some real competition - competition it can't beat. 1991 might actually be scary strong. It has the big games, it has depth, and if systems come into play next round, it has the biggest one. This round should be an easy win.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1991 with 68%




Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

On paper, this match has some upset potential looking at the games featured in both match pictures. 1991 has the strongest game between both years with Super Mario World, but 2002 has Metroid Prime and Kingdom Hearts which are both stronger than the other 3 games from 1991. The major weak spot with 2002 is Warcraft III and Vice City, which are weaker than any game from 1991.

1991 would normally struggle in Europe with 3 games that draw heavily upon the SNES, but the presence of Sonic here gives it some ability to receive votes from Europe while 2002's duo of Metroid Prime and Kingdom Hearts are both below average in Europe. With 2002 having 2 games weaker than the 1991 games, the odds of an upset on this match is fairly low.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: 1991

Luster Soldier's Prediction: 1991 - 58.76%


Crew Consensus: Score another 1 for 91
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2

1997 - 68.70%
2000 - 53.30%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

This one is a bit tougher. I think on raw game strength, 2000 should win this. It's got Zelda, Final Fantasy, Pokemon - most of the things you'd want. I'm not sure the picture is going to do it any favors, though. Pokémon is missing. FF9 isn't until slot 3. However, looking at 1996's picture, I don't think it fares that well either. It's got Mario 64 and...Mario RPG in the 4th slot. I think straight up I'd probably take MM over Mario 64. So this depends on how much of a factor Mario RPG is. My gut is telling me to stick with 2000. I'd feel a lot better about it if Pokemon was in the picture, but I still think it's a stronger year overall. Don't let me down, voters.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2000 with 54%



Guest’s Analysis - spooky96

Oh man this is a tough one. Both these years did pretty good in round 1. 1996 only has Mario going for it while you have a pretty good depth in 2000 in the name of Zelda, Square and Pokemon. While none of the 2000 games beat Super Mario 64 head-on, but combine the fanbases FF9, MM and GS and I think that would be just enough to beat 1996. Now that we know that we're using round 1 pics, if 1996 loses by a small margin, I'm really going to blame the match pics because of the absence of Gold/Silver, a game worth 45% on a strong game like Melee.

As we've finished round 1, we all know that one anchor can't carry a year, and this seems like a good example of it. Even though you could argue that Super Mario 64 and SMRPG are pretty strong games, its really unfortunate that they're both just Mario. I have 1996 winning in my bracket, but it looks like 2000 should have this.

spooky's prediction - 2000 with 58%


Crew Consensus: 2000 is the heavy favorite for this debated match
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 – 2000 vs. 1996

Moltar’s Analysis

oh boy this is a fun one

Originally I took 2000 here because I felt that it’s a deeper year than 1996, and the combined power of Majora’s Mask, Pokemon GSC, FF9, D2, and more would outweigh SM64 and SMRPG, which pretty much draw from the same fanbase.

How do I feel know that the contest is over half-way over? Pretty much the same even though 2000 doesn’t get Pokemon in the pic to help it out. Depth seems to be key here, with voters voting for the sum of the whole rather than just the parts. Sure, a beast like Chrono Trigger can carry a year, but even its struggling with a mildly deep year like 1987.

SM64 is no Chrono Trigger, but it does have a bit more backup than CT did with the rest of 1995. Combine that with 2000 having more strength overall than 1987, and you’ve got a real match.

I’m sticking with my bracket and the deeper year here, but this could easily go anyway.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2000

Moltar’s Prediction: 2000 - 52%



transience’s Analysis

ARGH. I hate that we're using round 1 pictures! 2000 has an outside shot at the final. Its strongest four are FF9, Majora's Mask, GSC and Diablo 2. It's got great natural strength and it hits all platforms. Unfortunately, it's getting saddled with Perfect Dark -- which isn't bad -- and Deus Ex, which kind of is.

I like to dump on 1996 for a lack of depth, but in this situation it's actually deeper than 2000. Super Mario 64 isn't THAT much better than FF9 or Majora, but Mario 64/SMRPG vs. Majora/FF9 is probably a toss-up, maybe a slight advantage to 96. I'm gonna stick with 2000 here but I'm mad about it. It shouldn't be this tough for it.

transience's prediction: 2000 with 51.00%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Yeah, I don’t know what to think of this match at all. 2000 had one of the closest matches of round 1 (technically speaking), and 1996 laid the smack down on 1989 probably harder than it should have because Tetris will always buckle to classic games, so I don’t think that match matters much. 2000 is the deeper year (although I don’t know if the match pic really reflects that well), but 1996 is the more influential year solely because of Mario 64. I don’t know how many people take that into account, but I imagine some do. People have wondered if having your two best games be from essentially the same franchise hurts 1996, but I don’t think it matters too much.

I was hoping I could talk myself into picking one or the other by the end of this writeup, but I’m still not sure! I’ll go with 1996 because I assume 2000 is the favorite and I’ll save the Crew from another curse.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1996

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1996 with 53.25%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 – 1997 vs. 2007

Moltar’s Analysis

Easy match right here. 1997 is one of the strongest years in the contest while 2007 should be around 1999 in strength considering it has no heavy-hitters on the site. Expecting a performance similar to its round 1 showing here.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1997

Moltar’s Prediction: 1997 - 72%



transience’s Analysis

I have a lot of respect for 2007. It's on the 2004 tier for me, maybe even higher. It's got a great picture too with its four best games. 2007 is the signature year for the Xbox 360 especially, but also the PS3 and Wii. It's got amazing diversity with Bioshock, Galaxy, Mass Effect and Portal.

1997 doesn't have its best but it's 3 for 4. Goldeneye, SOTN and our the Final Fantasy VII is pretty darn good. If 1997 doesn't break 60%, that's okay - I think 2007 is great. 2001 has been set up for greatness the whole way by drawing 2014 and 2008. 1997 has rougher competition.

transience's prediction: 1997 with 59.55%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Yeah, 1997 wins here. There’s no debating that, at least I don’t think so. How well does it need to do to look good going into next round? I don’t really know. 2007 did well last round, but 2012 might be the weakest post-2000 year in the contest. At the very least, it can’t do worse than the 2000/1996 winner (unless there’s some weird SFF in that match or something). Don’t really know what else to say about this one! I think 1997 will do fine, and I still like it to win next round, too…at least until the matches start anyway.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1997

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1997 with 70.70%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I'm on my phone here so I'll have to keep this short. Luckily, there's not much to talk about with this match. 2007 is still weak, and 1997 is the second or third strongest year in this bracket. This match won't be close.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1997 with 67%



Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

Both years had nearly identical 77% performances in round one. 1997 is one of the favorites to make it out of this half of the bracket. It has a strong anchor and a nice supporting cast, especially starting in round 3, where user-submitted pics begin. It will be able to strengthen its nintendo lineup with games like Mario Kart 64 and Star Fox 64. Yes, it already had Goldeneye, but that isn't your traditional nintendo game. It will need all the help it can get next round.

This match isn't in question though. 2007 had a strong round one performance, and has a nice lineup of midcarders that are aesthetically pleasing in the match pics, but with no anchor and falling outside the nostalgia sweet spot, it just can't stand up to 1997. The other match today is the exciting one.

tennisboy213's bracket: 1997 > 2007
tennisboy213's vote: 1997
tennisboy213's prediction: 1997 with 65.5%


Crew Consensus: 199 Final Fantasy 7
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2

1995 - 66.60%
2001 - 69.20%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 – 2001 vs. 2008

Moltar’s Analysis

alright i got big money on 2001 so it better rock faces here

2008 looks an awfully lot like 2014 on paper…or maybe that’s just because they both have Smash and MGS games in them. 2001 is still one of the strongest and deepest years in the bracket, and stuff like Fallout 3 and MGS4 and GTA4 can’t compare to even the 2nd tier stuff in 2001, let alone Melee and FFX. 2008 should fare a little bit better than 2014, but I’m still expecting 2001 to go hard.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2001

Moltar’s Prediction: 2001 - 70%



transience’s Analysis

2008 is a baby version of 2001. Melee vs. Brawl, MGS2 vs. MGS4, Fallout 3 vs... okay, it doesn't go that far. It's going to be awfully hard for 2008 to stand up to that.

I don't think this will be SFF or anything. 2008 stands well on its own. It's totally reasonable to prefer the MGS4/Brawl/F3 grouping over the FFX/MGS2 (assuming it's even there)/Melee grouping. But 08 isn't as influential to this site as 2001. Our average age is something like 28. People were ~14 when they were playing the 2001 games and ~21 in 2008. Games you play at 14 will always just make a bigger impact.

2001 is probably the top half favorite going into r2 - let's see if it can hold on to it.

transience's prediction: 2001 with 69.35%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I don’t think there’s any question 2001 wins here. The big issue is how high it needs to go to look like the favorite going into next round. I think 2008 is pretty strong, with a really solid top four in Fallout 3, MGS4, Brawl, and Persona 4, all of which were represented in its round 1 match pic. I won’t hold it against 2001 too much if it doesn’t blow the doors off of 2008 here, but if it can come close or outdo 1995’s performance, I’d probably consider it the favorite because I think 2008 is stronger than 1987.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2001

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2001 with 65.15%



Kleenex’s Analysis

2008 impressed me last round. Granted, I think 2009 is kind of junk, but still. It has a solid lineup and may actually put up more of a fight here than people think. 2001 is one of the 'big' years, and it's not going to lose to the likes of MGS4 and Brawl. For now, 2001 just takes its win and we get to compared today's matches to start debating what happens between 1995 and 2001 next round.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2001 with 65%



Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami


Crew Consensus: 01 stays fun
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

Round 2 Time! Get hyped (?)

1995 scored the blowout of the contest so far, so now we get to see if it can hold up those kinds of numbers against a year that has a bit more than Bubble Bobble and Balloon Fight. 1987 is legit, and honestly probably has more theoretical depth than 1995 does, but Chrono Trigger absolutely annihilates anything '87 has to offer. These '80s years just don't have the punch they need to compete with the hot spot years of the '90s and early '00s. My bracket hopes '95 can put up another monster here, because next round will be where the real matches start.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1995 with 68%



Guest’s Analysis - Big Bob

In my opinion, this is the year where the contest title comes to a head. Last round we saw Super Mario Bros get its ass kicked when it tried to hold a year by itself, and this will be doubly so with 1995. This match is essentially Chrono Trigger vs. the universe. None of the games in 1987 are worldbeaters - they're all outclassed by their superior sequels. But if there's a "Contest Title Boost", this is where it counts.

Zelda, Metroid, Mega Man, Castlevania. These games paved the industry's path for decades. This match is strange because voters will be split between voting for quality vs. voting for history. Chrono Trigger is one of this site's top games, but it's on its own - the second strongest game that year is Earthbound, for crying out loud. So the question is, where will voters go?

I'm guessing 87. It already kicked 85's ass, and the way this contest has been trending, "respect" is going to be more of a factor than usual. In particular, 2004's stellar performance shows it, because while Half-Life 2 and World of Warcraft are nowhere near the popularity of FFVI and Super Metroid here, it put up a very respectable performance.

Ultimately, Chrono Trigger just won't be able to hold up on its own. It'll have its supporters, for sure, but I think the year of the classics edges it out.

1987 - 55%


Crew Consensus: 95 stays alive
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2 – 1995 vs. 1987

Moltar’s Analysis

round 2 already woo

87 already proved in Round 1 that it can beat a year that’s held up by a single game. However, Chrono Trigger is no Super Mario Bros. on GameFAQs. CT is still one of the very strongest games here, and the other games behind it aren’t complete nothings (though that Round 1 match pic would say otherwise).

1987 should put up a respectable showing considering the amount of depth it has, and it does look like voters are taking that into account when voting. Still, CT’s overwhelming presence here is just too much. If Round 1 was CT vs. SMB, this is going to be CT vs. LoZ, and playing out like that should be enough for 1987 to coast to Round 3.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1995

Moltar’s Prediction: 1995 - 64%



transience’s Analysis

I'm doing this writeup blind. For all the talk of 2006's disastrous match picture, 1995 is undoubtedly got the worst of the round. Chrono Trigger is quite literally on its own with three games that are pretty obscure by this site's standards. Fortunately for 95, it drew 1986 in round 1, the worst year in modern video gaming history.

If it gets the same picture, 95 could be in trouble. 87, after all, has some really core franchises in its back pocket: Castlevania, Donkey Kong,. Punch-Out!!, etc. For some of round 1, I considered 87 as a real upset shot, maybe even 50-50. Depth has shown its power and 87 has it.

But then someone, I think Leonhart, said something that snapped me out of it. 1987 is just Zelda 1 and a bunch of fodder. Donkey Kong is not a popular game. Nor is Castlevania 1, or any Castlevania besides SOTN and maaaybe the DSvanias. Mega Man 1 just isn't good. Punch-Out already lost to Donkey Kong which, again, nobody likes. Metroid 1 is kind of a wretched game. 87 gives the outward appearance of strength, and it went to town on 85, but 91/88 and 96/89 both suggested that our early years have a lot more overlap than the PS1 and on era. In that light, 87 has a big hill to climb.

Now, if Chrono Trigger gets saddled with three poor games again, maybe it drowns under the weight of having to carry an entire year. But if it gets Earthbound, DKC2 and Yoshi's Island? Good night, 1987. If it even gets one or two of those, or other noteworthy console games during that era, it'll be fine.

transience's prediction: 1995 with 63.35%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Okay, now we’ve actually got a little bit of data to work with here! 1995 did what it was supposed to do in getting 89% on perhaps the weakest non-vote-in year, while 1987 might have had the most surprising performance of the round (because it happened first) when it nearly tripled 1985. I’ve seen some people picking 1987 to win here because it has more depth than 1995, but I don’t know that I really buy that. 1995 is Chrono Trigger and some midtier games, but 1987 is Zelda 1 and some fodder games. Sure, Metroid 1, Castlevania 1, and Mega Man 1 launched big franchises, but none of those games are popular on their own. I guess some people would argue that those games have some sort of “respect factor,” but I feel like 1985 wouldn’t have gotten tripled if that was worth very much! I still think 1995 wins pretty easily, although I don’t know what it needs to hit to feel good going into next round.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1995

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1995 with 70.50%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

1998 vs. 1992 -
2003 vs. 2005 -
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 19
Guest: 19
Kleenex: 19
transience: 18
Leonhart: 16

Crew Accuracy Challenge: tran gets the point for 00 and 97, Moltar gets the point for 96 and 91, Leon gets the point for 02, Tsunami gets the point for 94, Bane gets the point for 92, Kleenex gets the point for 03, Luster gets the point for 05

Kleenex: 5
transience: 5
Guest: 4 (Dp, Tsunami, Bane, Luster)
Moltar: 3
Leonhart: 2
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 2

1995 - 65.00%
2001 - 73.00%

1997 - 72.00%
2000 - 53.00%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

uh oh 2005
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 1

2003 - 58.50%
2005 - 52.20%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

2015's a weird one. There's some big games - Witcher 3, Bloodborne, Undertale, MGSV - but Undertale notwithstanding, none of them are really GameFAQs strong. Even Witcher 3 - 2015's game of the year on this site - couldn't beat MGS2 and MGS in general didn't look great last time around. 2005 is...whatever. I still think 2005 isn't really much to write home about.

So here's the thing. Undertale is in the match today. Do people try to recapture the 'magic' from last time? Do people anti-vote 2015 out of spite? Does anyone actually care anymore? 2011 showed that with a match pic advantage, you can take out years that you probably shouldn't beat. Problem is, I don't think 2015 has that advantage. Rocket League seems like a miss here and I think I'd much rather see either Bloodborne or MGS5 on here, and I'd rather Undertale have one of the top 2 slots.

I have 2015 making it a few rounds in my bracket but I'm starting to talk myself out of that pick. In my mind 2015 is certainly a much better year for games, but I'm struggling to see GameFAQs having the same opinion.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2005 with 60%



Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

Out all the entrants in this contest, 2015 was the only year that could have gotten a rally in Round 1. 2016 was another possible year, but it would have been lucky to get above 30% in its match and had a serious uphill battle to dig its way out of that hole with a rally. 2015 is located in a much more advantageous position, potentially capable of breaking 40% on 2005 through natural strength alone.

2015 has some games of decent strength, with both The Witcher 3 and Fallout 4, along with Undertale as well. More than a year has passed by since the 2015 GotY polls, which helps The Witcher 3 and Fallout 4 improve their playrates even more. Both games are probably stronger today than they were in the 2015 GotY polls. 2005 has the stronger anchor in Resident Evil 4 and solid backup from SotC and Phoenix Wright. God of War should be much weaker today compared to the GotD contest and thus a non-factor in 2005's strength. 2015 might have a better chance of winning this match if the match picture had Bloodborne instead of Rocket League, a game that should probably win head to head against God of War.

The rally potential of this match is the only thing that even gives 2015 a chance of winning this match. Considering that we're averaging about 16000 votes per match in this contest, a 60/40 match would be equal to a 3200 vote lead for 2005. This lead is less than half the size that Mass Effect 3 had on Undertale before the rally kicked into full gear. 2005 will have much less of a lead to work with before any rally can take place. It all comes down to how much the Undertale fanbase cares about rallying for 2015. The game doesn't have as much of a presence on Tumblr these days, so it will be harder to start a rally on Tumblr.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: 2005

Luster Soldier's Prediction: 2005 – 59.48%



Crew Consensus: 2005 is the favorite
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Round 1 – 2015 vs. 2005

Moltar’s Analysis

I don’t know why, but 2011 vs 2006 makes me hesitate a little here. 2005 should have this in the bag since 2015 doesn’t have a Skyrim like beast or huge pic advantage going for it. 2005 isn’t all that strong though, mainly just SotC and RE4 there. That’s really all it needs to beat 2015 though.

Not expecting a blowout here, but 2005 should take this by a comfortable margin. I feel like The Witcher 3 has enough casual clout here to make 2015 look semi-respectable.



okay mgs5, bloodborne, and even undertale help it here too this is definitely going to be a lot closer

Moltar’s Bracket: 2005

Moltar’s Prediction: 2005 - 55%



transience’s Analysis

Look, man, 05 ain't that good. RE4 and SOTC are fine games, and Phoenix Wright might bring some boys to the yard, but it's really missing that special game. I lost a lot of respect for RE4 when it went down to Mario RPG. SOTC is fun as the MGS-killer but I think that's more of a novelty than anything. Too bad MGS5 didn't get into the poll.

15's a great modern year. Witcher 3 is only going to improve over time. Undertale.. god, I'm scared to talk about Undertale. It's legit but it's probably not a rally target. It's more popular now than it was then but it's also less likely to get a big run here. Rocket League isn't our kind of game and Fallout 4.. is actually fine, but isn't gonna shake the heavens like 3 did.

I'm scared of 2015 here, but I'll go with the chalk.

transience's prediction: 2005 with 53.36%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve got 2005 here, but I’ve never really felt good about it, even without taking into consideration the possibility of 2015 getting a rally. I think it’s one of the weaker modern years. RE4 isn’t what it used to be, and as much as I respect Shadow of the Colossus, both as a game and a contest entrant, that can’t be your second strongest game if you want to do well. Phoenix Wright has come a long way in the last 12 years, but the Ace Attorney games have never been particularly strong. 2005 isn’t deep and it’s not top heavy, but its anchor is stronger than anything 2015 has to offer (in unrallied form, of course), which is what it’ll have to rely on to win.

2015 may not have high top end strength from any of its games, but it’s got some solid and influential games in its corner, like Witcher 3, Bloodborne, Fallout 4, MGSV, and, of course, Undertale. It’s got a good amount of depth. My biggest concern with 2015 is that it doesn’t have a really good Japanese game on its side, but 2011 managed just fine the other day without one (although it did have a Zelda, even if it was Skyward Sword).

I really feel like this is a tossup, so I’m going to turn against my bracket and side with 2015 here. I’m not expecting a rally or anything, and if all else fails, at least I’ll save the Crew from another curse!

Leonhart’s Vote: 2005

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2015 with 55.55%
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenex’s Analysis

2003 doesn't impress me very much. It has Wind Waker, but that's really all it has. I don't have very much repect for KotOR and beyond that the pickings are slim. I think 2013 is probably better than people (myself included) initially gave it credit for. Fire Emblem is pretty well-liked, as if The Last of Us. The supporing games - Bioshock, Pokemon, GTA - aren't that strong here, but they're pretty big-name series. I don't think any of these games can stand up to Wind Waker, though, so that should be enough to give 2003 a win.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2003 with 58%



Guest’s Analysis - sPOOPY

2013 is no slouch when it comes post 2009 years, after 2011 it could be our strongest year. Last of Us was worth 40% on KH2 in the BGE contest which is fairly respectable for a western game. Grand Theft Auto V was worth 42% on SMRPG. Throw in some Nintendo stuff like a weak Pokemon (because new fans vs old fans) and Fire Emblem game and could definitely have another round 1 match where the losing side at least breaks 40%. 2003 has a nice mixture of Nintendo, Pokemon, Japanese and Western games which allows 2003 to have a respectable amount of depth, even though none of the games world beaters.

spooky's prediction - 2003 with 59%



Crew Consensus: 3 > 13
---

Moltar Status: contest woo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/